Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• San Francisco Giants ML +150, 8.5%
• Chicago White Sox ML +155, 9.5%
• Boston Red Sox ML +125, 9.5%
• Tampa Bay Rays ML -145, 11.5%
• Pittsburgh Pirates ML +125, 6.5%
• Kansas City Royals ML -105, 7.5%
• Washington Nationals ML +110, 8%
• New York Mets ML +110, 9.5%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs	San Francisco Giants	50.00%	0.2500	+150
Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers	Seattle Mariners	55.08%	0.0080	-120
Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies	Chicago White Sox	50.75%	0.2891	+155
Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees	Boston Red Sox	55.00%	0.2374	+125
Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays	Baltimore Orioles	47.78%	0.0751	+125
Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins	Tampa Bay Rays	68.48%	0.1573	-145
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves	Pittsburgh Pirates	51.91%	0.1680	+125
Athletics vs Houston Astros	Athletics	50.00%	-0.0450	-110
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals	Cincinnati Reds	44.91%	0.0105	+125
Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers	Cleveland Guardians	60.51%	0.0529	-135
Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	Kansas City Royals	58.37%	0.1382	-105
Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies	44.06%	-0.0087	+125
Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Washington Nationals	55.88%	0.1735	+110
New York Mets vs San Diego Padres	New York Mets	57.33%	0.2040	+110
Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers*	Los Angeles Angels	38.49%	0.0201	+165

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	50.00%
Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers	Seattle Mariners	55.08%
Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies	Chicago White Sox	50.75%
Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees	Boston Red Sox	55.00%
Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	52.22%
Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins	Tampa Bay Rays	68.48%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves	Pittsburgh Pirates	51.91%
Athletics vs Houston Astros	Houston Astros	50.00%
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals	55.09%
Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers	Cleveland Guardians	60.51%
Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	Kansas City Royals	58.37%
Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies	Milwaukee Brewers	55.94%
Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Washington Nationals	55.88%
New York Mets vs San Diego Padres	New York Mets	57.33%
Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers*	Los Angeles Dodgers	61.51%

*Missing Angels starting pitcher