My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Washington Nationals ML +105, 7.5%
- Miami Marlins ML +110, 10%
- St. Louis Cardinals ML +125, 10.5%
- San Francisco Giants ML -130, 7.5%
- Arizona Diamondbacks ML +135, 6.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 52.91% | 0.0581 | +100 |
| San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 56.54% | 0.1591 | +105 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 53.41% | -0.0386 | -125 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles | Toronto Blue Jays | 54.31% | -0.0224 | -125 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 58.90% | -0.0045 | -145 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Boston Red Sox | 47.09% | -0.0110 | +110 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 63.75% | 0.0646 | -150 |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | Miami Marlins | 58.27% | 0.2237 | +110 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros | Milwaukee Brewers | 57.16% | 0.0689 | -115 |
| Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 56.06% | 0.2613 | +125 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds | Atlanta Braves | 59.98% | 0.0137 | -145 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | San Francisco Giants | 62.85% | 0.1125 | -130 |
| New York Yankees vs Athletics | Athletics | 42.38% | -0.0465 | +125 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle Mariners | Arizona Diamondbacks | 50.00% | 0.1750 | +135 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Philadelphia Phillies | 50.54% | 0.0613 | +110 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 52.91% |
| San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 56.54% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 53.41% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles | Toronto Blue Jays | 54.31% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 58.90% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 52.91% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 63.75% |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | Miami Marlins | 58.27% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros | Milwaukee Brewers | 57.16% |
| Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 56.06% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds | Atlanta Braves | 59.98% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | San Francisco Giants | 62.85% |
| New York Yankees vs Athletics | New York Yankees | 57.62% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 50.00% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Philadelphia Phillies | 50.54% |
Bayesball Picks 
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