My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Detroit Tigers ML +145, 10%
- Washington Nationals ML -145, 10%
- Chicago White Sox ML +120, 15%
- San Francisco Giants ML +135, 6.5%
- New York Mets ML +120, 11%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays | Detroit Tigers | 53.23% | 0.3040 | +145 |
| Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 67.80% | 0.1459 | -145 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds | Kansas City Royals | 40.63% | 0.0970 | +170 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox | 62.20% | 0.3560 | +120 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers | San Francisco Giants | 50.00% | 0.1750 | +135 |
| Texas Rangers vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 46.95% | -0.0375 | +105 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 67.47% | -0.0217 | -220 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 48.13% | 0.1310 | +135 |
| New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners | New York Mets | 57.64% | 0.2682 | +120 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays | Detroit Tigers | 53.23% |
| Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 67.80% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 59.37% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox | 62.20% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 50.00% |
| Texas Rangers vs St. Louis Cardinals | Texas Rangers | 53.05% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 67.47% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Los Angeles Dodgers | 51.87% |
| New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners | New York Mets | 57.64% |
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