Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Philadelphia Phillies ML -160, 14%
• Tampa Bay Rays ML -115, 6.5%
• Pittsburgh Pirates ML -115, 7.5%
• Colorado Rockies ML +325, 9.5%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue Jays	Miami Marlins	41.89%	-0.0155	+135
Washington Nationals vs Cleveland Guardians	Washington Nationals	45.04%	0.1486	+155
St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers*	Milwaukee Brewers	59.44%	-0.0193	-155
Seattle Mariners vs Athletics	Athletics	48.77%	0.0241	+110
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	51.93%	0.0905	+110
Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres	Philadelphia Phillies	72.56%	0.1755	-160
Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles	Tampa Bay Rays	59.78%	0.1179	-115
Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	50.85%	0.0076	+105
Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	60.37%	0.1289	-115
Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	54.25%	0.0850	+100
Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets	New York Mets	52.66%	-0.0364	-120
Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	55.41%	-0.0027	-125
New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals	New York Yankees	65.54%	0.0946	-150
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers	64.19%	0.0207	-170
Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Colorado Rockies	38.00%	0.6151	+325

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	58.11%
Washington Nationals vs Cleveland Guardians	Cleveland Guardians	54.96%
St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers*	Milwaukee Brewers	59.44%
Seattle Mariners vs Athletics	Seattle Mariners	51.23%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	51.93%
Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres	Philadelphia Phillies	72.56%
Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles	Tampa Bay Rays	59.78%
Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	50.85%
Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	60.37%
Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	54.25%
Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets	New York Mets	52.66%
Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	55.41%
New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals	New York Yankees	65.54%
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers	64.19%
Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	62.00%

*Missing starting pitchers