Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Washington Nationals ML +115, 10%
• Pittsburgh Pirates ML -135, 14%
• Texas Rangers ML -140, 10%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Washington Nationals vs Cleveland Guardians	Washington Nationals	57.81%	0.2428	+115
Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles	Tampa Bay Rays	55.91%	0.0455	-115
Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	57.87%	-0.0105	-140
Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	69.55%	0.2102	-135
Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	54.43%	0.0614	-105
Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	58.65%	-0.0087	-145
Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets*	New York Mets	50.00%	0.0000	+100
Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox	Minnesota Twins	54.23%	0.0032	-115
New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	37.57%	0.0520	+180
St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers	St. Louis Cardinals	45.03%	0.1032	+145
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers	66.71%	0.1407	-140
Seattle Mariners vs Athletics	Athletics	51.56%	0.0312	+100
Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres	Philadelphia Phillies	48.28%	-0.0308	+105
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants	Arizona Diamondbacks	54.29%	0.0152	-115
Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Colorado Rockies	36.78%	0.1035	+200

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Washington Nationals vs Cleveland Guardians	Washington Nationals	57.81%
Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles	Tampa Bay Rays	55.91%
Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	57.87%
Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	69.55%
Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	54.43%
Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	58.65%
Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets*	New York Mets	50.00%
Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox	Minnesota Twins	54.23%
New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals	New York Yankees	62.43%
St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	54.97%
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers	66.71%
Seattle Mariners vs Athletics	Athletics	51.56%
Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres	52.72%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants	Arizona Diamondbacks	54.29%
Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	63.22%

*Missing Mets starting pitcher