Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Tampa Bay Rays ML +120, 14%
• Chicago White Sox ML +105, 10%
• Washington Nationals ML +155, 6%
• Athletics ML -110, 10%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds*	St. Louis Cardinals	57.17%	0.0920	-110
Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees	Tampa Bay Rays	62.98%	0.3730	+120
Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs	Houston Astros	46.65%	0.0497	+125
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays	Pittsburgh Pirates	66.11%	0.0908	-155
Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles	Detroit Tigers	49.95%	-0.0011	+100
Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies	Cleveland Guardians	40.44%	0.0716	+165
Chicago White Sox vs San Francisco Giants	Chicago White Sox	59.86%	0.2271	+105
Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals	Seattle Mariners	51.52%	0.0422	+115
Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox	Minnesota Twins	51.02%	0.0205	+100
Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves	Washington Nationals	47.31%	0.2063	+155
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	New York Mets	51.22%	-0.0012	-105
St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds*	St. Louis Cardinals	63.67%	0.2161	-110
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	54.18%	0.0837	+100
Athletics vs San Diego Padres	Athletics	62.62%	0.1961	-110
Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	46.30%	0.0186	+120
Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks	65.46%	0.0277	-175

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds*	St. Louis Cardinals	57.17%
Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees	Tampa Bay Rays	62.98%
Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	53.35%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays	Pittsburgh Pirates	66.11%
Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	50.05%
Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies	59.56%
Chicago White Sox vs San Francisco Giants	Chicago White Sox	59.86%
Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals	Seattle Mariners	51.52%
Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox	Minnesota Twins	51.02%
Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	52.69%
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	New York Mets	51.22%
St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds*	St. Louis Cardinals	63.67%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	54.18%
Athletics vs San Diego Padres	Athletics	62.62%
Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels	Texas Rangers	53.70%
Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks	65.46%

*Doubleheader