My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Houston Astros ML +120, 6%
- St. Louis Cardinals ML -110, 10%
- Tampa Bay Rays ML +135, 15%
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML +140, 9%
- Minnesota Twins ML +125, 6.5%
- Washington Nationals ML +180, 8%
- Los Angeles Angels ML +145, 18%
- Athletics ML +110, 12%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs | Houston Astros | 52.19% | 0.1482 | +120 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | St. Louis Cardinals | 63.74% | 0.2174 | -110 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies | Cleveland Guardians | 44.31% | 0.1256 | +155 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees | Tampa Bay Rays | 64.48% | 0.5153 | +135 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays | Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.21% | 0.2531 | +140 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox | Minnesota Twins | 51.69% | 0.1630 | +125 |
| New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | New York Mets | 56.90% | 0.0241 | -125 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 56.17% | -0.0227 | -135 |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals | 46.80% | 0.3103 | +180 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 48.92% | 0.0664 | +120 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 52.03% | -0.0063 | -110 |
| Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 72.84% | 0.7846 | +145 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Colorado Rockies | 43.54% | 0.1538 | +165 |
| Athletics vs San Diego Padres | Athletics | 65.70% | 0.3796 | +110 |
| Chicago White Sox vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 49.44% | -0.0359 | -105 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs | Houston Astros | 52.19% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | St. Louis Cardinals | 63.74% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 55.69% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees | Tampa Bay Rays | 64.48% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays | Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.21% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox | Minnesota Twins | 51.69% |
| New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | New York Mets | 56.90% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 56.17% |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 53.20% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals | Seattle Mariners | 51.08% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 52.03% |
| Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 72.84% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 56.46% |
| Athletics vs San Diego Padres | Athletics | 65.70% |
| Chicago White Sox vs San Francisco Giants | Chicago White Sox | 50.56% |
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