Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Cincinnati Reds ML +115, 7.5%
• Tampa Bay Rays ML -130, 7%
• Texas Rangers ML -135, 7.5%
• Chicago White Sox ML +120, 10%
• Boston Red Sox ML +100, 8.5%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies	Cincinnati Reds	54.59%	0.1737	+115
Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	62.52%	0.1067	-130
Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins	63.42%	0.0592	-150
Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies	Texas Rangers	63.75%	0.1092	-135
San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks	San Francisco Giants	52.45%	0.0752	+105
Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners	Chicago White Sox	56.61%	0.2454	+120
Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers*	Detroit Tigers	50.00%	0.0000	+100
Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	41.21%	0.1333	+175
New York Mets vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	49.59%	0.0166	+105
Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees	Toronto Blue Jays	43.95%	0.0769	+145
Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals	Boston Red Sox	58.85%	0.1770	+100
Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs	Milwaukee Brewers	51.19%	-0.0222	-110
Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals	Pittsburgh Pirates	50.00%	-0.0100	+100
Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres	Los Angeles Dodgers	60.16%	0.0359	+160
Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels	Athletics	62.36%	0.0851	-135

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies	Cincinnati Reds	54.59%
Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	62.52%
Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins	63.42%
Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies	Texas Rangers	63.75%
San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks	San Francisco Giants	52.45%
Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners	Chicago White Sox	56.61%
Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers*	Detroit Tigers	50.00%
Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins	Atlanta Braves	58.79%
New York Mets vs Washington Nationals	New York Mets	50.41%
Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees	New York Yankees	56.05%
Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals	Boston Red Sox	58.85%
Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs	Milwaukee Brewers	51.19%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals	50.00%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres	Los Angeles Dodgers	60.16%
Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels	Athletics	62.36%

*Missing Tigers starting pitcher