My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Washington Nationals ML +115, 6.5%
- Boston Red Sox ML -140, 9%
- Minnesota Twins ML -140, 10%
- Texas Rangers ML -115, 10%
- Chicago White Sox ML +125, 11%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 47.56% | 0.0463 | +120 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 41.61% | -0.0013 | +140 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 55.14% | 0.0091 | -120 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies | Cincinnati Reds | 46.38% | -0.0259 | +110 |
| New York Mets vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 53.50% | 0.1503 | +115 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays | 48.29% | 0.0140 | +110 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals | Boston Red Sox | 65.85% | 0.1260 | -140 |
| Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 66.64% | 0.1395 | -140 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 50.16% | -0.0220 | -105 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.94% | 0.0713 | -105 |
| Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies | Texas Rangers | 63.35% | 0.1846 | -115 |
| Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | Athletics | 50.00% | 0.0500 | +110 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | Los Angeles Dodgers | 65.80% | 0.0331 | -175 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | 52.65% | 0.0793 | +105 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners | Chicago White Sox | 56.68% | 0.2752 | +125 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Atlanta Braves | 52.44% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | Cleveland Guardians | 58.39% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 55.14% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 53.62% |
| New York Mets vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 53.50% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 51.71% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals | Boston Red Sox | 65.85% |
| Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 66.64% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 50.16% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.94% |
| Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies | Texas Rangers | 63.35% |
| Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 50.00% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | Los Angeles Dodgers | 65.80% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | 52.65% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners | Chicago White Sox | 56.68% |
Bayesball Picks 
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