My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Minnesota Twins ML -120, 10%
- Colorado Rockies ML +130, 7%
- San Francisco Giants ML +110, 8%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | Cleveland Guardians | 45.26% | 0.0183 | +125 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 62.89% | 0.0377 | -155 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 55.34% | -0.0205 | -130 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Atlanta Braves | 53.19% | -0.0054 | -115 |
| New York Mets vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 50.10% | 0.0522 | +110 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 56.82% | 0.0578 | +145 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals | Boston Red Sox | 53.86% | 0.0072 | -115 |
| Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 63.58% | 0.1634 | -120 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 64.93% | 0.0324 | -170 |
| Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 50.95% | 0.1718 | +130 |
| Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 48.35% | 0.0395 | +115 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 43.48% | -0.0216 | +125 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | 56.22% | 0.1806 | +110 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners | Chicago White Sox | 48.32% | 0.1355 | +135 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 54.74% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 62.89% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 55.34% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Atlanta Braves | 53.19% |
| New York Mets vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 50.10% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 56.82% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals | Boston Red Sox | 53.86% |
| Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 63.58% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 64.93% |
| Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 50.95% |
| Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | Athletics | 51.65% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | Los Angeles Dodgers | 56.52% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | 56.22% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 51.68% |
Bayesball Picks 
Leave a comment