My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Chicago White Sox ML +120, 10%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 66.23% | 0.0530 | -170 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 49.37% | 0.0367 | +110 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.91% | -0.0446 | -135 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves | Boston Red Sox | 44.83% | 0.0312 | +130 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 61.35% | -0.0246 | -170 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 51.60% | 0.0165 | +110 |
| New York Yankees vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 53.35% | 0.0190 | -110 |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Texas Rangers | 54.08% | -0.0104 | -120 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 56.75% | 0.2485 | +120 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins | Milwaukee Brewers | 53.74% | -0.0327 | -125 |
| Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 54.83% | 0.0034 | -120 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 43.11% | 0.0130 | +130 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Athletics | San Francisco Giants | 44.82% | 0.0085 | +125 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 48.64% | 0.0944 | +125 |
| San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | San Diego Padres | 40.79% | -0.0415 | +135 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 66.23% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals | Baltimore Orioles | 50.63% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.91% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 55.17% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 61.35% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers | Toronto Blue Jays | 51.60% |
| New York Yankees vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 53.35% |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Texas Rangers | 54.08% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 56.75% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins | Milwaukee Brewers | 53.74% |
| Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 54.83% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies | Arizona Diamondbacks | 56.89% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Athletics | Athletics | 55.18% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Dodgers | 51.36% |
| San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 59.21% |
Bayesball Picks 
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