Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Washington Nationals ML +125, 16%
• St. Louis Cardinals ML -110, 5.5%
• Boston Red Sox ML -105, 7.5%
• San Francisco Giants ML +140, 9%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Colorado Rockies	41.23%	-0.0310	+135
Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds	Washington Nationals	62.77%	0.4123	+125
Detroit Tigers vs New York Mets	Detroit Tigers	45.82%	0.0996	+140
Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins*	Miami Marlins	52.80%	0.0824	+105
San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	64.93%	0.0843	-150
Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros	Seattle Mariners	59.54%	0.0539	-130
St. Louis Cardinals vs Athletics	St. Louis Cardinals	57.96%	0.1070	-110
Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	58.84%	0.1474	-105
Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	59.94%	-0.0470	-170
Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox	Kansas City Royals	56.18%	-0.0394	-140
San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers	San Francisco Giants	52.35%	0.2564	+140

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	58.77%
Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds	Washington Nationals	62.77%
Detroit Tigers vs New York Mets	New York Mets	54.18%
Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins*	Miami Marlins	52.80%
San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	64.93%
Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros	Seattle Mariners	59.54%
St. Louis Cardinals vs Athletics	St. Louis Cardinals	57.96%
Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	58.84%
Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	59.94%
Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox	Kansas City Royals	56.18%
San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers	San Francisco Giants	52.35%

*Missing Marlins starting pitcher