My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Washington Nationals ML +115, 5%
- Tampa Bay Rays ML +105, 11%
- Colorado Rockies ML +240, 9%
- Chicago White Sox ML +105, 13%
- St. Louis Cardinals ML +110, 15%
- Detroit Tigers ML +105, 8%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals | 52.25% | 0.1233 | +115 |
| Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles | Athletics | 52.95% | 0.0113 | -110 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox | Tampa Bay Rays | 61.91% | 0.2692 | +105 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies | Colorado Rockies | 44.27% | 0.5052 | +240 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 56.48% | 0.1013 | -105 |
| Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds | Houston Astros | 48.53% | -0.0294 | +100 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 59.14% | -0.0124 | -130 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 63.60% | 0.3038 | +105 |
| New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers | New York Yankees | 58.32% | 0.0322 | -130 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Texas Rangers | Chicago Cubs | 52.77% | 0.0818 | +105 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants | Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.03% | 0.0147 | -105 |
| New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks | New York Mets | 50.34% | -0.0386 | -110 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres | St. Louis Cardinals | 68.04% | 0.4288 | +110 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 53.67% | -0.0500 | -130 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | Detroit Tigers | 58.11% | 0.1913 | +105 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals | 52.25% |
| Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles | Athletics | 52.95% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox | Tampa Bay Rays | 61.91% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 55.73% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 56.48% |
| Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 51.47% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 59.14% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 63.60% |
| New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers | New York Yankees | 58.32% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Texas Rangers | Chicago Cubs | 52.77% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants | Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.03% |
| New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks | New York Mets | 50.34% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres | St. Louis Cardinals | 68.04% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 53.67% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | Detroit Tigers | 58.11% |
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