My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Tampa Bay Rays ML -105, 7%
- Texas Rangers ML -115, 10%
- San Francisco Giants ML +155, 15%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians | Los Angeles Angels | 42.00% | -0.0130 | +135 |
| New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles | New York Yankees | 60.07% | -0.0328 | -165 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.05% | 0.1320 | -105 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 62.99% | 0.1779 | -115 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros | Seattle Mariners | 58.26% | -0.0271 | -150 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers | San Francisco Giants | 57.98% | 0.4786 | +155 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 58.00% |
| New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles | New York Yankees | 60.07% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.05% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 62.99% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros | Seattle Mariners | 58.26% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers | San Francisco Giants | 57.98% |
Bayesball Picks 
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