My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Washington Nationals ML +130, 11%
- Boston Red Sox ML -135, 7.5%
- Tampa Bay Rays ML +130, 6.5%
- Seattle Mariners ML -130, 8.5%
- St. Louis Cardinals ML +120, 6%
- San Francisco Giants ML +200, 9.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 41.90% | 0.0476 | +150 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 60.79% | -0.0152 | -160 |
| Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds | Washington Nationals | 56.31% | 0.2952 | +130 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Colorado Rockies | 41.96% | 0.0700 | +155 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 63.93% | 0.1125 | -135 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | Tampa Bay Rays | 51.19% | 0.1774 | +130 |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 52.14% | -0.0042 | -110 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves | Chicago Cubs | 56.19% | -0.0504 | -145 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 50.00% | -0.0250 | -105 |
| Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins | Miami Marlins | 56.74% | 0.0044 | -130 |
| San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers | San Diego Padres | 45.70% | 0.0053 | +120 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 48.20% | -0.0359 | +100 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros | Seattle Mariners | 64.16% | 0.1357 | -130 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Athletics | St. Louis Cardinals | 51.94% | 0.1428 | +120 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers | San Francisco Giants | 45.99% | 0.3797 | +200 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles | New York Yankees | 58.10% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 60.79% |
| Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds | Washington Nationals | 56.31% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 58.04% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 63.93% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | Tampa Bay Rays | 51.19% |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 52.14% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves | Chicago Cubs | 56.19% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 50.00% |
| Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins | Miami Marlins | 56.74% |
| San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 54.30% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 51.80% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros | Seattle Mariners | 64.16% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Athletics | St. Louis Cardinals | 51.94% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 54.01% |
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