My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Athletics ML +110, 7.5%
- Tampa Bay Rays ML +125, 14%
- Colorado Rockies ML +165, 14%
- Detroit Tiger ML +115, 12%
- St. Louis Cardinals ML +120, 7.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays | Los Angeles Angels | 39.70% | -0.0075 | +150 |
| Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles | Athletics | 55.66% | 0.1689 | +110 |
| Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds | Houston Astros | 45.02% | 0.0805 | +140 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox | Tampa Bay Rays | 62.57% | 0.4079 | +125 |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 64.21% | 0.0338 | -165 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies | Colorado Rockies | 58.67% | 0.5546 | +165 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | Minnesota Twins | 52.27% | 0.0349 | +100 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Texas Rangers | Chicago Cubs | 63.01% | 0.0649 | -145 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | Detroit Tigers | 59.63% | 0.2821 | +115 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 48.67% | 0.0707 | +120 |
| New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers | New York Yankees | 61.77% | 0.0439 | -145 |
| New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks | New York Mets | 58.57% | 0.0718 | -120 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres | St. Louis Cardinals | 54.00% | 0.1771 | +120 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants | Pittsburgh Pirates | 59.00% | 0.0796 | -120 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 65.55% | 0.0423 | -170 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 60.30% |
| Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles | Athletics | 55.66% |
| Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 54.98% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox | Tampa Bay Rays | 62.57% |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 64.21% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies | Colorado Rockies | 58.67% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | Minnesota Twins | 52.27% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Texas Rangers | Chicago Cubs | 63.01% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | Detroit Tigers | 59.63% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox | Seattle Mariners | 51.33% |
| New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers | New York Yankees | 61.77% |
| New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks | New York Mets | 58.57% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres | St. Louis Cardinals | 54.00% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants | Pittsburgh Pirates | 59.00% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 65.55% |
Bayesball Picks 
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