5/4/26 Baseball Picks

Eighth Day of Testing Period

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies	54.43%	0.1702	+115
Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	55.59%	0.1117	+100
Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	63.73%	0.1663	-120
Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	67.74%	0.2938	-110
Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees	Baltimore Orioles	39.21%	0.0980	+180
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	70.16%	0.0384	-210
Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	53.18%	-0.0162	-115
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals	50.00%	0.0000	+100
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros	Los Angeles Dodgers	69.52%	0.0289	-210
Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels	Chicago White Sox	52.64%	0.1843	+125
Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners	Atlanta Braves	53.92%	0.1592	+115
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	66.43%	0.3950	+110

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies	54.43%
Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	55.59%
Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	63.73%
Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	67.74%
Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees	New York Yankees	60.79%
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	70.16%
Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	53.18%
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals	50.00%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros	Los Angeles Dodgers	69.52%
Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels	Chicago White Sox	52.64%
Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners	Atlanta Braves	53.92%
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	66.43%