Ninth Day of Testing Period
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Athletics ML +150, 5%
- St. Louis Cardinals ML -115, 10%
- Chicago White Sox ML -105, 12.5%
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML +105, 5%
- Atlanta Braves ML +110, 7.5%
- San Francisco Giants ML -130, 11%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Boston Red Sox | 43.66% | 0.0696 | +145 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 56.73% | 0.0042 | -130 |
| Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies | Athletics | 46.85% | 0.1711 | +150 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 58.84% | 0.0237 | -135 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 52.57% | -0.0169 | -115 |
| Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees | Texas Rangers | 54.69% | 0.0938 | +100 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati Reds | 41.57% | -0.0024 | +140 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 47.96% | -0.0409 | +100 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 62.84% | 0.1751 | -115 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros | Los Angeles Dodgers | 71.51% | 0.0226 | -230 |
| New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 48.19% | 0.1325 | +135 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | Chicago White Sox | 63.54% | 0.2390 | -105 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Pittsburgh Pirates | 53.73% | 0.1016 | +105 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners | Atlanta Braves | 55.85% | 0.1728 | +110 |
| San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 66.20% | 0.1718 | -130 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 56.34% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 56.73% |
| Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 53.15% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 58.84% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 52.57% |
| Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees | Texas Rangers | 54.69% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 58.43% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals | Cleveland Guardians | 52.04% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 62.84% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros | Los Angeles Dodgers | 71.51% |
| New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies | New York Mets | 51.81% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | Chicago White Sox | 63.54% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Pittsburgh Pirates | 53.73% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners | Atlanta Braves | 55.85% |
| San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 66.20% |
Bayesball Picks 
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