My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Colorado Rockies ML +180, 12.5%
- Tampa Bay Rays ML +125, 6.5%
- Chicago White Sox ML +120, 14%
- St. Louis Cardinals ML +125, 12%
- Atlanta Braves ML +100, 8.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 61.45% | 0.0508 | -140 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies | Colorado Rockies | 51.67% | 0.4467 | +180 |
| Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 59.86% | 0.0236 | -140 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays | Los Angeles Angels | 46.16% | 0.0847 | +135 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox | Tampa Bay Rays | 51.90% | 0.1679 | +125 |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals | 52.82% | 0.0828 | +105 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 60.51% | 0.0347 | -140 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 61.59% | 0.0532 | -140 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 60.46% | 0.3301 | +120 |
| New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers | New York Yankees | 62.12% | 0.0623 | -140 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Texas Rangers | Chicago Cubs | 64.22% | 0.0981 | -140 |
| New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 44.27% | -0.0260 | +120 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres | St. Louis Cardinals | 57.93% | 0.3035 | +125 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Atlanta Braves | 59.08% | 0.1698 | +100 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants* | Pittsburgh Pirates | 60.28% | N/A | N/A |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 61.45% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies | Colorado Rockies | 51.67% |
| Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 59.86% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 53.84% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox | Tampa Bay Rays | 51.90% |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals | 52.82% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 60.51% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 61.59% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 60.46% |
| New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers | New York Yankees | 62.12% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Texas Rangers | Chicago Cubs | 64.22% |
| New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks | New York Mets | 55.73% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres | St. Louis Cardinals | 57.93% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Atlanta Braves | 59.08% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants* | Pittsburgh Pirates | 60.28% |
*Missing Giants starting pitcher
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