Fifth Day of Testing Period
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Toronto Blue Jays ML -105, 8.5%
- Colorado Rockies ML +165, 6.5%
- Los Angeles Angels ML +105, 15%
- Chicago White Sox ML +120, 25%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 51.56% | 0.0414 | +115 |
| Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers | Texas Rangers | 48.75% | -0.0347 | +100 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Cincinnati Reds | 48.93% | 0.0032 | +105 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 41.93% | -0.0146 | +135 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees* | Baltimore Orioles | 48.74% | 0.1943 | +145 |
| Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox* | Boston Red Sox | 57.83% | 0.0699 | -115 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Tampa Bay Rays | San Francisco Giants | 47.12% | -0.0104 | +110 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 48.39% | -0.0080 | +105 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins | Toronto Blue Jays | 59.61% | 0.1625 | -105 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 42.43% | 0.0820 | +155 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 45.87% | 0.2155 | +165 |
| New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 64.16% | 0.3153 | +105 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Athletics | Cleveland Guardians | 54.51% | 0.0629 | -105 |
| Chicago White Sox vs San Diego Padres | Chicago White Sox | 73.25% | 0.6115 | +120 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 59.99% | -0.0101 | -155 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 51.56% |
| Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 51.25% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.07% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals | Milwaukee Brewers | 58.07% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees* | New York Yankees | 51.26% |
| Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox* | Boston Red Sox | 57.83% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 52.88% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Philadelphia Phillies | 51.61% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins | Toronto Blue Jays | 59.61% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals | Los Angeles Dodgers | 57.57% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies | Atlanta Braves | 54.13% |
| New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 64.16% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Athletics | Cleveland Guardians | 54.51% |
| Chicago White Sox vs San Diego Padres | Chicago White Sox | 73.25% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 59.99% |
*Missing starting pitcher information
Bayesball Picks 
Leave a comment