Sixth Day of Testing Period
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Cincinnati Reds ML +110, 6.5%
- Miami Marlins ML -120, 7.5%
- St. Louis Cardinals ML +110, 4.5%
- Chicago White Sox ML +170, 18%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees | Baltimore Orioles | 46.80% | 0.0999 | +135 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 48.83% | 0.0254 | +110 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 63.45% | 0.0088 | -170 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Athletics | Cleveland Guardians | 47.87% | 0.0053 | +110 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Cincinnati Reds | 54.42% | 0.1428 | +110 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 47.29% | 0.0168 | +115 |
| Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 58.40% | 0.0511 | -125 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 61.42% | 0.1240 | -120 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Tampa Bay Rays | San Francisco Giants | 55.96% | 0.0912 | -105 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 52.42% | 0.1009 | +110 |
| Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 56.80% | -0.0288 | -140 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies* | Colorado Rockies | 39.72% | 0.1321 | +185 |
| Chicago White Sox vs San Diego Padres | Chicago White Sox | 60.54% | 0.6345 | +170 |
| New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 50.83% | 0.0674 | +110 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners | Kansas City Royals | 50.00% | 0.0900 | +120 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 53.20% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins | Toronto Blue Jays | 51.17% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 63.45% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Athletics | Athletics | 52.13% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Cincinnati Reds | 54.42% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals | Milwaukee Brewers | 52.71% |
| Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 58.40% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 61.42% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Tampa Bay Rays | San Francisco Giants | 55.96% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 52.42% |
| Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 56.80% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies* | Atlanta Braves | 60.28% |
| Chicago White Sox vs San Diego Padres | Chicago White Sox | 60.54% |
| New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 50.83% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 50.00% |
*Missing Rockies starting pitcher
Bayesball Picks 
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