4/30/26 Baseball Picks

Fourth Day of Testing Period

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

Matchup	Expected Winner	Probability	EV	Odds
Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves	Detroit Tigers	50.00%	-0.0250	-105
Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles*	Baltimore Orioles	71.61%	0.3106	-120
St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates	St. Louis Cardinals	40.60%	0.1572	+185
San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies*	San Francisco Giants	48.12%	0.0587	+120
Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles*	Baltimore Orioles	68.86%	0.2601	-120
Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds	Colorado Rockies	50.00%	0.2250	+145
Washington Nationals vs New York Mets	Washington Nationals	39.38%	0.1027	+180
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers	Arizona Diamondbacks	58.24%	0.1939	+105
Kansas City Royals vs Athletics	Athletics	54.93%	-0.0113	-125
San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies*	San Francisco Giants	54.26%	0.1938	+120
Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins	Toronto Blue Jays	61.72%	0.0739	-135

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Expected Winner	Probability
Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	50.00%
Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles*	Baltimore Orioles	71.61%
St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	59.40%
San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies*	Philadelphia Phillies	51.88%
Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles*	Baltimore Orioles	68.86%
Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds	Colorado Rockies	50.00%
Washington Nationals vs New York Mets	New York Mets	60.62%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers	Arizona Diamondbacks	58.24%
Kansas City Royals vs Athletics	Athletics	54.93%
San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies*	San Francisco Giants	54.26%
Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins	Toronto Blue Jays	61.72%

* Missing starting pitcher for teams