Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 6/27/26 Recap

      Just another bad day for this week. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/15Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15Picks won: 3/8Net Units: -1.27uROI: -15.88% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 35/81Sportsbook favorites won: 43/81Picks won: 15/42Net Units: -11.44uROI: -27.24%

    • 6/27/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Texas Rangers ML +155, 7% Cincinnati Reds ML -120, 14.5% Philadelphia Phillies ML +110, 10% Kansas City Royals ML +105, 15.5% Arizona Diamondbacks ML +120, 21.5% Chicago Cubs ML +135, 6.5% St. Louis Cardinals ML -145, 10% San Diego…

    • 6/26/26 Recap

      It’s been an awful day and an awful week. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 6/15Sportsbook favorites won: 11/15Picks won: 2/8Net Units: -4.34uROI: -54.25% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 28/66Sportsbook favorites won: 36/66Picks won: 12/34Net Units: -10.17uROI: -29.91%

    • 6/26/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Washington Nationals ML +115, 14% Texas Rangers ML -105, 8.5% Tampa Bay Rays ML -140, 9% New York Yankees ML -110, 7.5% Kansas City Royals ML +105, 17.5% Chicago Cubs ML +200, 11.5% Colorado Rockies ML +145, 12.5% San…

    • 6/25/26 Recap

      Nats genuinely need to get rid of their bullpen and start over. The past 3 games have had genuinely atrocious closing pitching. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 2/8Sportsbook favorites won: 2/8Picks won: 2/4Net Units: +0.60uROI: 15.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 22/51Sportsbook favorites won: 25/51Picks won: 10/26Net Units: -5.83uROI: -22.42%

    • 6/25/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Kansas City Royals ML +120, 15% Pittsburgh Pirates ML +125, 4% Washington Nationals ML +150, 4.5% Boston Red Sox ML +135, 6% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Kansas City Royals…

    • 6/24/26 Recap

      Another insane choke from the Nats. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/16Sportsbook favorites won: 9/16Picks won: 4/8Net Units: -0.29uROI: -3.63% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 20/43Sportsbook favorites won: 23/43Picks won: 8/22Net Units: -6.43uROI: -29.23%

    • 6/24/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Cleveland Guardians ML -115, 7% Los Angeles Angels ML -130, 11.5% Seattle Mariners ML +100, 13.5% Kansas City Royals ML +125, 12% Washington Nationals ML +110, 11.5% Houston Astros ML +140, 8% Milwaukee Brewers ML -145, 16.5% Minnesota Twins…

    • 6/23/26 Recap

      Just terrible luck today tbh. Nationals choking that hurt. Tons of rallies but no clutches for me though. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/15Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15Picks won: 2/9Net Units: -4.84uROI: -53.78% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 12/27Sportsbook favorites won: 14/27Picks won: 4/14Net Units: -6.14uROI: -43.86%

    • 6/23/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Kansas City Royals ML +155, 17.5% Detroit Tigers ML +100, 16.5% Washington Nationals ML +135, 4% Cincinnati Reds ML +100, 9% Minnesota Twins ML +145, 23% Cleveland Guardians ML -115, 7% St. Louis Cardinals ML -110, 12% Boston Red…