Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 6/22/26 Recap

      Pretty bad day + Cubs game pushed to tmrw. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 5/12Sportsbook favorites won: 6/12Picks won: 2/5Net Units: -1.30uROI: -26.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 5/12Sportsbook favorites won: 6/12Picks won: 2/5Net Units: -1.30uROI: -26.00%

    • 6/22/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Detroit Tigers ML +105, 11.5% Miami Marlins ML -135, 10.5% Houston Astros ML +110, 9% Chicago Cubs ML -125, 8.5% Milwaukee Brewers ML -155, 26% Minnesota Twins ML +130, 6.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher…

    • 6/21/26 Recap

      Solid day to end the week. Pity Orioles choked that first game of the series. They could’ve swept the Dodgers. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 9/14Sportsbook favorites won: 8/14Picks won: 4/7Net Units: +2.00uROI: 28.57% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 54/89Sportsbook favorites won: 53/89Picks won: 19/37Net Units: +4.95uROI: 13.38%

    • 6/21/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Washington Nationals ML +110, 5% Miami Marlins ML +120, 4.5% Kansas City Royals ML +105, 6.5% Colorado Rockies ML +125, 6.5% Minnesota Twins ML +110, 6.5% Baltimore Orioles ML +190, 11% Seattle Mariners ML -125, 13.5% Comparison to Sportsbook…

    • 6/20/26 Recap

      I don’t think I’ll forget about yesterday anytime soon, but today almost felt like compensation for it. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/14Sportsbook favorites won: 4/14Picks won: 5/6Net Units: +5.95uROI: 99.17% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 45/75Sportsbook favorites won: 45/75Picks won: 15/30Net Units: +2.95uROI: 9.83%

    • 6/20/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Cincinnati Reds ML +165, 12.5% Washington Nationals ML +105, 8% Cleveland Guardians ML +120, 13.5% New York Mets ML +155, 14% Baltimore Orioles ML +195, 5% Minnesota Twins ML +110, 4.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup…

    • 6/19/26 Recap

      Crushing day. Ofc when I finally get a good day this happens. Angels and Os somehow completely threw two of the most winnable games ever. 2 walkoffs to make this an 0/4 day. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/14Sportsbook favorites won: 11/14Picks won: 0/4Net Units: -4.00uROI: -100.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 38/61Sportsbook favorites won:…

    • 6/19/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Cincinnati Reds ML +225, 5% Cleveland Guardians ML +105, 12% Los Angeles Angels ML +140, 8% Baltimore Orioles ML +170, 7% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Toronto Blue Jays vs…

    • 6/18/26 Recap

      Amazing day. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 6/8Sportsbook favorites won: 4/8Picks won: 3/3Net Units: +3.35uROI: 111.67% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 30/47Sportsbook favorites won: 30/47Picks won: 10/20Net Units: +1.00uROI: 5.00%

    • 6/18/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Toronto Blue Jays ML +105, 6.5% Cleveland Guardians ML +125, 8.5% New York Mets ML +105, 10.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Toronto…