Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 6/17/26 Recap

      Crazy Rays choke ngl Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 10/15Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15Picks won: 4/8Net Units: +0.65uROI: +8.13% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 24/39Sportsbook favorites won: 26/39Picks won: 7/17Net Units: -2.35uROI: -13.82%

    • 6/17/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Kansas City Royals ML +110, 6% Miami Marlins ML -105, 8.5% San Francisco Giants ML +135 (From yesterday) Detroit Tigers ML -110, 7% Tampa Bay Rays ML +150, 4% Cleveland Guardians ML +105, 13.5% Colorado Rockies ML +155, 16.5%…

    • 6/16/26 Recap

      A lot of close games today that went poorly. Giants moved to tmrw. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/14Sportsbook favorites won: 11/14Picks won: 2/6Net Units: -2.05uROI: -34.33% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 14/24Sportsbook favorites won: 19/24Picks won: 3/9Net Units: -3.00uROI: -33.33%

    • 6/16/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Miami Marlins ML +145, 14.5% Cincinnati Reds ML +105, 7.5% San Francisco Giants ML +135, 8% Cleveland Guardians ML +125, 10% Detroit Tigers ML +135, 3.5% Los Angeles Angles ML -110, 6% Tampa Bay Rays ML +125, 9.5% Comparison…

    • 6/15/26 Recap

      Both losses were chokes unfortunately. It is what it is. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/10Sportsbook favorites won: 8/10Picks won: 1/3 Net Units: -0.95uROI: -31.67% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 7/10Sportsbook favorites won: 8/10Picks won: 1/3 Net Units: -0.95uROI: -31.67%

    • 6/15/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Detroit Tigers ML +105, 15.5% Los Angeles Angels ML +110, 14.5% Tampa Bay Rays ML +135, 12.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 38.63%…

    • 6/14/26 Recap

      Alright day to end the week, would’ve been great if the Cards didn’t choke. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 6/14Sportsbook favorites won: 7/14Picks won: 3/6Net Units: +1.13uROI: 18.83% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 43/89Sportsbook favorites won: 48/89Picks won: 18/36Net Units: +1.01uROI: 2.81%

    • 6/14/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Baltimore Orioles ML -140, 11.5% Cincinnati Reds ML -110, 13% St. Louis Cardinals ML -105, 10.5% Chicago White Sox ML +165, 14% Colorado Rockies ML +165, 3.5% Tampa Bay Rays ML -120, 13% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and…

    • 6/13/26 Recap

      Pretty bad streak. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 6/15Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15Picks won: 2/7Net Units: -2.88uROI: -41.14% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 37/75Sportsbook favorites won: 41/75Picks won: 15/30Net Units: -0.12uROI: -0.40%

    • 6/13/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy St. Louis Cardinals ML -115, 8.5% Baltimore Orioles ML -125, 7% Miami Marlins ML +100, 10.5% Cincinnati Reds ML +125, 5% Chicago White Sox ML +170, 9.5% Colorado Rockies ML +135, 15% San Francisco Giants ML +100, 6.5% Comparison…