Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 6/12/26 Recap

      Could’ve been a good day, but Stanek and the Cards manager completely blew that game. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15Picks won: 2/5Net Units: -1.01uROI: -20.20% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 31/60Sportsbook favorites won: 33/60Picks won: 13/23Net Units: +2.76uROI: 12.00%

    • 6/12/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Baltimore Orioles ML -135, 10.5% Chicago White Sox ML +125, 9% Philadelphia Phillies ML +200, 8% Kansas City Royals ML -105, 13.5% St. Louis Cardinals ML +115, 10% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team…

    • 6/11/26 Recap

      Pretty mid day. White Sox got postponed Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 5/7Sportsbook favorites won: 5/7Picks won: 2/4Net Units: -0.33uROI: -8.25% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 23/45Sportsbook favorites won: 23/45Picks won: 11/18Net Units: +3.77uROI: 20.94%

    • 6/11/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy St. Louis Cardinals ML +120, 4.5% Detroit Tigers ML -125, 7.5% Miami Marlins ML -115, 15% Pittsburgh Pirates ML +140, 6.5% Chicago White Sox ML +100, 5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability…

    • 6/10/26 Recap

      Day was full of comebacks that went against my model. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 5/15Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15Picks won: 1/3Net Units: -0.30uROI: -10.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 18/38Sportsbook favorites won: 18/38Picks won: 9/14Net Units: +4.10uROI: 29.29%

    • 6/10/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Cincinnati Reds ML +140, 8.5% Pittsburgh Pirates ML +170, 7% Arizona Diamondbacks ML -110, 14.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays…

    • 6/9/26 Recap

      Amazing day. White Sox clutch was insane. Braden Montgomery is him. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 9/15Sportsbook favorites won: 6/15Picks won: 7/8Net Units: +5.63uROI: 70.38% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 13/23Sportsbook favorites won: 11/23Picks won: 8/11Net Units: +4.40uROI: 40.00%

    • 6/9/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Pittsburgh Pirates ML -110, 8% Tampa Bay Rays ML -110, 8.5% Detroit Tigers ML -135, 8.5% Miami Marlins ML -125, 7% Chicago White Sox ML +135, 5% Los Angeles Angels ML +105, 12.5% Cincinnati Reds ML -120, 10.5% Washington…

    • 6/8/26 Recap

      Not a great day tbh. Reds choked hard. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 4/8Sportsbook favorites won: 5/8Picks won: 1/3Net Units: -1.23uROI: -41.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 4/8Sportsbook favorites won: 5/8Picks won: 1/3Net Units: -1.23uROI:-41.00%

    • 6/8/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Toronto Blue Jays ML +155, 3.5% Houston Astros ML -130, 9.5% Cincinnati Reds ML +120, 21.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles* Seattle Mariners 50.34% N/A…