Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    Category: Uncategorized

    • 6/7/26 Recap

      Great 67 day and end of week. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 10/15Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15Picks won: 4/7Net Units: +1.71uROI: 24.43% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 44/92Sportsbook favorites won: 44/92Picks won: 21/46Net Units: +1.76uROI: 3.83%

    • 6/7/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Pittsburgh Pirates ML +135, 7% Boston Red Sox ML +140, 5% Athletics ML -105, 8.5% Washington Nationals ML +110, 10% Los Angeles Angels ML +180, 4% New York Mets ML -110, 7.5% San Francisco Giants ML +105, 5.5% Comparison…

    • 6/6/26 Recap

      Mets unfortunately choked. Red Sox moved to tmrw. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/14Sportsbook favorites won: 7/14Picks won: 3/8Net Units: -1.15uROI: -14.37% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 34/77Sportsbook favorites won: 34/77Picks won: 17/39Net Units: +0.05uROI: 0.13%

    • 6/6/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Kansas City Royals ML +135, 6.5% Chicago White Sox ML +115, 11.5% Washington Nationals ML +135, 8.5% Athletics ML -105, 11% Pittsburgh Pirates ML +100, 10% Boston Red Sox ML +110, 8.5% Colorado Rockies ML +240, 3% Los Angeles…

    • 6/5/26 Recap

      Really solid day. Needed something like this. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15Picks won: 5/8Net Units: +2.64uROI: 33.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 27/63Sportsbook favorites won: 27/63Picks won: 14/31Net Units: +1.20uROI: 3.87%

    • 6/5/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy San Francisco Giants ML +150, 8.5% Chicago White Sox ML +155, 9.5% Boston Red Sox ML +125, 9.5% Tampa Bay Rays ML -145, 11.5% Pittsburgh Pirates ML +125, 6.5% Kansas City Royals ML -105, 7.5% Washington Nationals ML +110,…

    • 6/4/26 Recap

      As genuinely made me wanna break something. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 3/9Sportsbook favorites won: 4/9Picks won: 2/5Net Units: +0.34uROI: 6.80% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 19/48Sportsbook favorites won: 20/48Picks won: 9/23Net Units: -1.44uROI: -6.26%

    • 6/4/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Cleveland Guardians ML +140, 3% San Francisco Giants ML +155, 5% Toronto Blue Jays ML +180, 8% Athletics ML +110, 12% Houston Astros ML -110, 15% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV…

    • 6/3/26 Recap

      Not the greatest day but the As did clutch. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 6/15Sportsbook favorites won: 5/15Picks won: 3/7Net Units: -0.45uROI: -6.43% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 16/39Sportsbook favorites won: 16/39Picks won: 7/18Net Units: -1.78uROI: -9.89%

    • 6/3/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Washington Nationals ML -110, 6% Detroit Tigers ML +125, 5% New York Mets ML +125, 5% Baltimore Orioles ML +125, 7% Toronto Blue Jays ML +125, 6.5% Texas Rangers ML -105, 5.5% Athletics ML +105, 11% Comparison to Sportsbook…