Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 6/2/26 Recap

      Alright day. Guardians clutched. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/15Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15Picks won: 3/6Net Units: +1.22uROI: 20.33% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 10/24Sportsbook favorites won: 11/24Picks won: 4/11Net Units: -1.33uROI: -12.09%

    • 6/2/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy San Diego Padres ML +115, 9% Cleveland Guardians ML +200, 7.5% Chicago White Sox ML -125, 9.5% San Francisco Giants ML +170, 7% Texas Rangers ML -115, 9.5% Colorado Rockies ML +135, 16% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and…

    • 6/1/26 Recap

      Pretty bad day. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 3/9Sportsbook favorites won: 4/9Picks won: 1/5Net Units: -2.55uROI: -51.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 3/9Sportsbook favorites won: 4/9Picks won: 1/5Net Units: -2.55uROI: -51.00%

    • 6/1/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Detroit Tigers ML +145, 10% Washington Nationals ML -145, 10% Chicago White Sox ML +120, 15% San Francisco Giants ML +135, 6.5% New York Mets ML +120, 11% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team…

    • 5/31/26 Recap

      What a day for the model. Still not enough to save the week though. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 14/15Sportsbook favorites won: 11/15Picks won: 4/5Net Units: +2.69uROI: 53.80% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 52/94Sportsbook favorites won: 53/94Picks won: 13/31Net Units: -5.56uROI: -17.94%

    • 5/31/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Washington Nationals ML +100, 10% Boston Red Sox ML -105, 10% San Francisco Giants ML -115, 12.5% Philadelphia Phillies ML +185, 6% St. Louis Cardinals ML -115, 15% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team…

    • 5/30/26 Recap

      Pretty bad week. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/15Sportsbook favorites won: 6/15Picks won: 1/5Net Units: -2.95uROI: -59.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 38/79Sportsbook favorites won: 42/79Picks won: 9/26Net Units: -8.25uROI: -31.73%

    • 5/30/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Washington Nationals ML +105, 7.5% Miami Marlins ML +110, 10% St. Louis Cardinals ML +125, 10.5% San Francisco Giants ML -130, 7.5% Arizona Diamondbacks ML +135, 6.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your…

    • 5/29/26 Recap

      Detroit Tigers loss was really stupid. So was the Diamondbacks one, but I had less expectations there. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 11/15Picks won: 2/5Net Units: -1.02uROI: -20.40% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 31/64Sportsbook favorites won: 36/64Picks won: 8/21Net Units: -5.30uROI: -25.24%

    • 5/29/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Boston Red Sox ML +100, 20% St. Louis Cardinals ML +115, 4.5% Detroit Tigers ML -115, 8.5% Milwaukee Brewers ML -120, 18% Arizona Diamondbacks ML +125, 8% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your…