Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    Category: Uncategorized

    • 5/28/26 Recap

      Hitting a little bit of an unlucky streak unfortunately. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/6Sportsbook favorites won: 2/6Picks won: 0/2Net Units: -2.00uROI: -100.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 23/49Sportsbook favorites won: 25/49Picks won: 6/16Net Units: -4.28uROI: -26.75%

    • 5/28/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Detroit Tigers ML -135, 10% Minnesota Twins ML +120, 7.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers…

    • 5/27/26 Recap

      Accurate on everything except my picks somehow lmao. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 11/15Sportsbook favorites won: 11/15Picks won: 1/4Net Units: -2.38uROI: -59.50% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 22/43Sportsbook favorites won: 23/43Picks won: 6/14Net Units: -2.28uROI: -16.29%

    • 5/27/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Philadelphia Phillies ML -160, 14% Tampa Bay Rays ML -115, 6.5% Pittsburgh Pirates ML -115, 7.5% Colorado Rockies ML +325, 9.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher…

    • 5/26/26 Recap

      Solid day today. Covers yesterday’s loss. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/15Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15Picks won: 3/3Net Units: +2.60uROI: 86.67% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 11/28Sportsbook favorites won: 12/28Picks won: 5/10Net Units: +0.10uROI: 1.00%

    • 5/26/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Washington Nationals ML +115, 10% Pittsburgh Pirates ML -135, 14% Texas Rangers ML -140, 10% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Washington…

    • 5/25/26 Recap

      Pretty awful start to the week but we still chilling cuz of last week. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 4/13Sportsbook favorites won: 4/13Picks won: 2/7Net Units: -2.50uROI: -35.71% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 4/13Sportsbook favorites won: 4/13Picks won: 2/7Net Units: -2.50uROI: -35.71%

    • 5/25/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Pittsburgh Pirates ML +105, 9.5% St. Louis Cardinals ML +180, 8.5% Kansas City Royals ML +125, 9% Washington Nationals ML +145, 12.5% Texas Rangers ML -135, 11.5% Colorado Rockies ML +260, 5% Athletics ML +100, 6.5% Comparison to Sportsbook…

    • 5/24/26 Recap

      Insanely good day to end an insanely good week. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 9/15Sportsbook favorites won: 6/15Picks won: 5/6Net Units: +5.63uROI: 93.83% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 51/94Sportsbook favorites won: 49/94Picks won: 22/32Net Units: +15.32uROI: 48.86%

    • 5/24/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Pittsburgh Pirates ML +135, 8% Tampa Bay Rays ML +110, 15% Miami Marlins ML +100, 12% Houston Astros ML +150, 8% Athletics ML +140, 18% Washington Nationals ML +140, 10% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are…