Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    Category: Uncategorized

    • 7/2/26 Recap

      Can’t have a good week without a day nuking all the progress. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 3/9Sportsbook favorites won: 4/9Picks won: 0/3Net Units: -3.00uROI: -100.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 28/51Sportsbook favorites won: 29/51Picks won: 13/25Net Units: +0.21uROI: 0.84%

    • 7/2/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Kansas City Royals ML +105 Los Angeles Angels ML +180, 14% San Diego Padres ML +165, 8.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Pittsburgh Pirates 47.70%…

    • 7/1/26 Recap

      Pretty solid day. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/14Sportsbook favorites won: 7/14Picks won: 5/8Net Units: +1.24uROI: 15.50% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 25/42Sportsbook favorites won: 25/42Picks won: 13/22Net Units: +3.21uROI: 14.59%

    • 7/1/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Cleveland Guardians ML -110, 8% Detroit Tigers ML +120, 8% Chicago Cubs ML -125, 8.5% Pittsburgh Pirates ML +115, 5% St. Louis Cardinals ML +110, 7% Tampa Bay Rays ML -135, 11.5% Milwaukee Brewers ML -165, 15.5% Los Angeles…

    • 6/30/26 Recap

      The Giants stink. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15Picks won: 4/8Net Units: -0.10uROI: -1.25% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 18/28Sportsbook favorites won: 18/28Picks won: 8/14Net Units: +1.97uROI: 14.07%

    • 6/30/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Chicago White Sox ML +125, 4% Pittsburgh Pirates ML +180, 15.5% New York Mets ML -110, 12.5% St. Louis Cardinals ML +120, 10% Cincinnati Reds ML +140, 19.5% Los Angeles Dodgers ML -185, 10% Los Angeles Angels ML +155,…

    • 6/29/26 Recap

      Pretty good as far as Mondays go. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 10/13Sportsbook favorites won: 8/13Picks won: 4/6Net Units: +2.07uROI: 34.50% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 10/13Sportsbook favorites won: 8/13Picks won: 4/6Net Units: +2.07uROI: 34.50%

    • 6/29/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Pittsburgh Pirates ML -110, 12% Detroit Tigers ML +110, 20% New York Mets ML +105, 11.5% Texas Rangers ML +135, 7.5% Milwaukee Brewers ML -140, 16.5% Los Angeles Angels ML +170, 12.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):…

    • 6/28/26 Recap

      Horrible week. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 9/15Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15Picks won: 4/6Net Units: +2.10uROI: 35.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 44/96Sportsbook favorites won: 51/96Picks won: 19/48Net Units: -9.34uROI: -19.46%

    • 6/28/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Texas Rangers ML +110, 8.5% Tampa Bay Rays ML -190, 12.5% Colorado Rockies ML +140, 19.5% Kansas City Royals ML +120, 14% Miami Marlins ML +105, 12% San Francisco Giants ML +135, 8.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and…