Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

Recent posts

    Category: Uncategorized

    • 7/7/26 Recap

      Mid day. We take it though Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 10/16Sportsbook favorites won: 11/16Picks won: 3/5Net Units: +0.76uROI: 15.20% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 15/24Sportsbook favorites won: 15/24Picks won: 4/8Net Units: -0.19uROI: -2.38%

    • 7/7/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Chicago Cubs ML -115, 6.5% Tampa Bay Rays ML -120, 21.5% Kansas City Royals ML +125, 9.5% Los Angeles Angels ML +140, 6% Arizona Diamondbacks ML +100, 10% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Predicted Winner Probability…

    • 7/6/26 Recap

      I was really hoping I would have a comeback go my way for once, but the Rockies couldn’t finish the deal. Pretty bad start to the week. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 5/8Sportsbook favorites won: 4/8Picks won: 1/3Net Units: -0.95uROI: -31.67% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 5/8Sportsbook favorites won: 4/8Picks won: 1/3Net Units: -0.95uROI: -31.67%

    • 7/6/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Tampa Bay Rays ML +105, 5.5% New York Mets ML +110, 19.5% Colorado Rockies ML +185, 7% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals Philadelphia Phillies…

    • 7/5/26 Recap

      Diamondbacks had the filthiest loss I’ve seen in a while. Also, Cardinal’s manager is an idiot, but we’ve known this for a while. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/15Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15Picks won: 3/6Net Units: +0.12uROI: 2.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 50/94Sportsbook favorites won: 54/94Picks won: 21/44Net Units: -2.00uROI: -4.55%

    • 7/5/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy New York Mets ML -115, 15.5% Baltimore Orioles ML -115, 10.5% Minnesota Twins ML +110, 10.5% Chicago White Sox ML +115, 11% St. Louis Cardinals ML +125, 6.5% Arizona Diamondbacks ML +100, 15% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and…

    • 7/4/26 Recap

      Knew this would happen but ofc I got touched today. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15Picks won: 2/8Net Units: -3.25uROI: -40.62% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 43/79Sportsbook favorites won: 47/79Picks won: 18/38Net Units: -2.12uROI: -5.58%

    • 7/4/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Minnesota Twins ML +135, 7.5% Texas Rangers ML +100, 10% Cincinnati Reds ML -125, 17.5% St. Louis Cardinals ML +140, 19% New York Mets ML +140, 9.5% Kansas City Royals ML +125, 13.5% Athletics ML +105, 6% Milwaukee Brewers…

    • 7/3/26 Recap

      Good day, but who knows how long it’ll last. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/13Sportsbook favorites won: 8/13Picks won: 3/5Net Units: +0.92uROI: 18.40% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 35/64Sportsbook favorites won: 37/64Picks won: 16/30Net Units: +1.13uROI: 3.67%

    • 7/3/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Minnesota Twins ML +180, 14.5% Baltimore Orioles ML -120, 15.5% Tampa Bay Rays ML -110, 12% Miami Marlins ML +120, 14.5% Seattle Mariners ML +105, 9% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV…