Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 7/12/26 Recap

      Another day of trolled leads. Horrible last couple days to end the week going into all-star week. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 5/15Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15Picks won: 3/10Net Units: -3.00uROI: -30.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 51/97Sportsbook favorites won: 55/97Picks won: 21/48Net Units: -3.98uROI: -8.29%

    • 7/12/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Kansas City Royals ML +125, 18% Washington Nationals ML -115, 20% Cincinnati Reds ML +110, 5.5% Tampa Bay Rays ML -145, 9% Philadelphia Phillies ML +110, 6.5% Los Angeles Angels ML +115, 15% Atlanta Braves ML +115, 6% Colorado…

    • 7/11/26 Recap

      Just about every team I had today trolled their leads away. Genuinely so disheartening. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/16Sportsbook favorites won: 9/16Picks won: 3/10Net Units: -2.55uROI: -25.50% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 46/82Sportsbook favorites won: 47/82Picks won: 18/38Net Units: -0.98uROI: -2.58%

    • 7/11/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Milwaukee Brewers ML +105, 5% Washington Nationals ML +165, 16.5% Boston Red Sox ML +125, 14.5% Seattle Mariners ML -105, 5.5% Detroit Tigers ML +120, 8% Houston Astros ML +100, 7.5% Cincinnati Reds ML -115, 11.5% Atlanta Braves ML…

    • 7/10/26 Recap

      Every time I have the Nats they throw away the game in the last two innings. Up by a run and the manager decides to put in a 14 era closer. Unbelievable. Also, Brewers game moved to tmrw. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 6/14Sportsbook favorites won: 5/14Picks won: 4/7Net Units: +1.63uROI: 23.29% Weekly Stats: Model…

    • 7/10/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Detroit Tigers ML -115, 12.5% Milwaukee Brewers ML +105, 5% Washington Nationals ML +125, 11% Chicago Cubs ML -115, 6% Tampa Bay Rays ML -120, 8% Miami Marlins ML -120, 12.5% Boston Red Sox ML +125, 9.5% Arizona Diamondbacks…

    • 7/9/26 Recap

      Angels had so many chances and just blew it. Seems like these late-night close games never go in my favor. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 9/13Sportsbook favorites won: 9/13Picks won: 4/7Net Units: +0.71uROI: 10.14% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 32/52Sportsbook favorites won: 33/52Picks won: 11/21Net Units: -0.06uROI: -0.29%

    • 7/9/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Tampa Bay Rays ML -160, 8.5% Baltimore Orioles ML -130, 10% Minnesota Twins ML +110, 8.5% Boston Red Sox ML +100, 15% Detroit Tigers ML -140, 12.5% Miami Marlins ML +125, 4.5% Los Angeles Angels ML +120, 7% Comparison…

    • 7/8/26 Recap

      Kalshi didn’t let me get Angels at the line I wanted and I missed it. Pretty miffed about that. Also, Rockies won the only match of the series I didn’t bet on lmao. They played really well today but just couldn’t get the RISP in. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15Picks won:…

    • 7/8/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Detroit Tigers ML -165, 7.5% Miami Marlins ML +105, 6.5% Tampa Bay Rays ML -135, 18.5% Houston Astros ML +120, 4.5% Milwaukee Brewers ML -145, 10% Colorado Rockies ML +190, 18% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup…