My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Tampa Bay Rays ML +105, 5.5%
- New York Mets ML +110, 19.5%
- Colorado Rockies ML +185, 7%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals | Philadelphia Phillies | 69.70% | 0.0107 | -220 |
| New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 53.17% | 0.1165 | +105 |
| Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 52.96% | -0.0308 | -120 |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 67.27% | 0.4464 | +115 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | Milwaukee Brewers | 54.62% | 0.0432 | -110 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 59.41% | 0.0695 | -125 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 56.16% | 0.0950 | -105 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Colorado Rockies | 44.51% | 0.2463 | +180 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals | Philadelphia Phillies | 69.70% |
| New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 53.17% |
| Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 52.96% |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 67.27% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | Milwaukee Brewers | 54.62% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 59.41% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 56.16% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 55.49% |
Bayesball Picks 
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