Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Chicago Cubs ML -115, 6.5%
• Tampa Bay Rays ML -120, 21.5%
• Kansas City Royals ML +125, 9.5%
• Los Angeles Angels ML +140, 6%
• Arizona Diamondbacks ML +100, 10%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability	EV	Odds
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals*	Milwaukee Brewers	57.36%	N/A	N/A
Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles	Chicago Cubs	59.30%	0.0971	-115
Athletics vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	69.54%	0.0640	-190
Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Atlanta Braves	45.69%	0.0965	+140
Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins*	Seattle Mariners	52.55%	0.0510	+100
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	73.95%	0.3534	-120
Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals	Houston Astros	52.03%	0.0666	+105
Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets*	Kansas City Royals	54.85%	0.2342	+125
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds	Philadelphia Phillies	66.67%	0.0600	-170
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	Cleveland Guardians	51.18%	0.0134	+100
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	50.09%	0.0269	+105
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals*	Milwaukee Brewers	55.69%	N/A	N/A
Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers	Los Angeles Angels	48.56%	0.1656	+140
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	Arizona Diamondbacks	60.10%	0.2020	+100
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants*	Toronto Blue Jays	54.29%	0.0043	-115
Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	67.12%	0.0522	+220

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals*	Milwaukee Brewers	57.36%
Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles	Chicago Cubs	59.30%
Athletics vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	69.54%
Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	54.31%
Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins*	Seattle Mariners	52.55%
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	73.95%
Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals	Houston Astros	52.03%
Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets*	Kansas City Royals	54.85%
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds	Philadelphia Phillies	66.67%
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	Cleveland Guardians	51.18%
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	50.09%
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals*	Milwaukee Brewers	55.69%
Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers	51.44%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	Arizona Diamondbacks	60.10%
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants*	Toronto Blue Jays	54.29%
Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	67.12%

*Missing starting pitcher/doubleheader