My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Minnesota Twins ML +180, 14.5%
- Baltimore Orioles ML -120, 15.5%
- Tampa Bay Rays ML -110, 12%
- Miami Marlins ML +120, 14.5%
- Seattle Mariners ML +105, 9%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 57.51% | 0.0006 | -135 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 43.30% | -0.0041 | +130 |
| Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees | Minnesota Twins | 54.47% | 0.5253 | +180 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds | Baltimore Orioles | 68.84% | 0.2598 | -120 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Chicago White Sox | 45.86% | -0.0369 | +110 |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 55.92% | 0.0904 | -105 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | San Francisco Giants | 58.75% | -0.0189 | -150 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros | Tampa Bay Rays | 63.60% | 0.214 | -110 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 56.87% | 0.0635 | -115 |
| Miami Marlins vs Athletics | Miami Marlins | 61.69% | 0.3449 | +120 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Milwaukee Brewers | 62.43% | 0.0551 | -145 |
| San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 69.66% | -0.0247 | -250 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 58.12% | 0.1914 | +105 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 57.51% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 56.70% |
| Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees | Minnesota Twins | 54.47% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds | Baltimore Orioles | 68.84% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 54.14% |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 55.92% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | San Francisco Giants | 58.75% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros | Tampa Bay Rays | 63.60% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 56.87% |
| Miami Marlins vs Athletics | Miami Marlins | 61.69% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Milwaukee Brewers | 62.43% |
| San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 69.66% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 58.12% |
Bayesball Picks 
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