My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Minnesota Twins ML +135, 7.5%
- Texas Rangers ML +100, 10%
- Cincinnati Reds ML -125, 17.5%
- St. Louis Cardinals ML +140, 19%
- New York Mets ML +140, 9.5%
- Kansas City Royals ML +125, 13.5%
- Athletics ML +105, 6%
- Milwaukee Brewers ML -155, 9%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 62.78% | -0.0018 | -170 |
| Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees | Minnesota Twins | 51.00% | 0.1984 | +135 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 60.16% | 0.1912 | +100 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 59.48% | -0.0363 | -160 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 71.20% | 0.2817 | -125 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 56.12% | 0.0718 | -110 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Chicago White Sox | 45.37% | -0.0109 | +120 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals | 63.71% | 0.5291 | +140 |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 52.85% | 0.2685 | +140 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 45.84% | -0.0373 | +110 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 59.60% | 0.3411 | +125 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | Boston Red Sox | 40.68% | -0.0238 | +140 |
| Miami Marlins vs Athletics | Athletics | 54.99% | 0.1272 | +105 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Milwaukee Brewers | 67.52% | 0.1141 | -155 |
| San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | San Diego Padres | 30.52% | -0.0234 | +220 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 62.78% |
| Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees | Minnesota Twins | 51.00% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 60.16% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 59.48% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 71.20% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 56.12% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 54.63% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals | 63.71% |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 52.85% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | San Francisco Giants | 54.16% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 59.60% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | Boston Red Sox | 59.32% |
| Miami Marlins vs Athletics | Athletics | 54.99% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Milwaukee Brewers | 67.52% |
| San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 69.48% |
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