Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• New York Mets ML -115, 15.5%
• Baltimore Orioles ML -115, 10.5%
• Minnesota Twins ML +110, 10.5%
• Chicago White Sox ML +115, 11%
• St. Louis Cardinals ML +125, 6.5%
• Arizona Diamondbacks ML +100, 15%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves	New York Mets	68.02%	0.2721	-115
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	59.43%	0.0044	-145
Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds	Baltimore Orioles	63.83%	0.1809	-115
Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees	Minnesota Twins	58.46%	0.2277	+110
Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians	Chicago White Sox	58.27%	0.2527	+115
St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs	St. Louis Cardinals	51.93%	0.1684	+125
Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals	Philadelphia Phillies	56.64%	-0.0427	-145
Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros*	Houston Astros	60.70%	0.1107	-120
Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers	Detroit Tigers	61.69%	0.0918	-130
San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies	San Francisco Giants	53.40%	-0.0228	-120
Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks	64.80%	0.2960	+100
Miami Marlins vs Athletics	Athletics	55.16%	0.0093	-120
Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	57.23%	0.0129	-130
San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers	San Diego Padres	36.10%	-0.0253	+170
Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels	Boston Red Sox	59.09%	-0.0385	+135

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves	New York Mets	68.02%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	59.43%
Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds	Baltimore Orioles	63.83%
Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees	Minnesota Twins	58.46%
Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians	Chicago White Sox	58.27%
St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs	St. Louis Cardinals	51.93%
Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals	Philadelphia Phillies	56.64%
Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros*	Houston Astros	60.70%
Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers	Detroit Tigers	61.69%
San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies	San Francisco Giants	53.40%
Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks	64.80%
Miami Marlins vs Athletics	Athletics	55.16%
Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	57.23%
San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	63.90%
Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels	Boston Red Sox	59.09%

*Missing Rays starting pitcher