Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 5/3/26 Recap

      A lot of chokes today, but they were 50/50 games anyways so I can’t be too mad. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 9/15Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15Picks won: 1/5Net Units: -2.95uROI: -59.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 51/92Sportsbook favorites won: 50/92Picks won: 19/33Net Units: +8.25uROI: 25.00%

    • 5/3/26 Baseball Picks

      Seventh Day of Testing Period My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Toronto Blue Jays ML -115, 8% Baltimore Orioles ML +190, 4% Miami Marlins ML +125, 5.5% Kansas City Royals ML +105, 6% Chicago White Sox ML +155, 9% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and…

    • 5/2/26 Recap

      Really solid day. White Sox been doing me good. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 10/15Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15Picks won: 3/4Net Units: +2.63uROI: 65.75% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 42/77Sportsbook favorites won: 40/77Picks won: 18/28Net Units: +11.20uROI: 40.00%

    • 5/2/26 Baseball Picks

      Sixth Day of Testing Period My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Cincinnati Reds ML +110, 6.5% Miami Marlins ML -120, 7.5% St. Louis Cardinals ML +110, 4.5% Chicago White Sox ML +170, 18% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your…

    • 5/1/26 Recap

      Ok day today. Kinda sucks that both the Rockies and Angels choked hard. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 10/15Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15Picks won: 2/5Net Units: -0.85uROI: -17.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 32/62Sportsbook favorites won: 31/62Picks won: 15/24Net Units: +8.57uROI: 35.71%

    • 5/1/26 Baseball Picks

      Fifth Day of Testing Period My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Baltimore Orioles ML +155, 9% Toronto Blue Jays ML -105, 8.5% Colorado Rockies ML +165, 6.5% Los Angeles Angels ML +105, 15% Chicago White Sox ML +120, 25% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and…

    • 4/30/26 Recap

      Pretty bad day for both me and the book. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 3/11Sportsbook favorites won: 4/11Picks won: 1/3Net Units: -0.15uROI: -5.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 22/47Sportsbook favorites won: 22/47Picks won: 13/19Net Units: +9.42uROI: 49.58%

    • 4/30/26 Baseball Picks

      Fourth Day of Testing Period My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy St. Louis Cardinals ML +185, 4% Colorado Rockies ML +145, 7.5% Arizona Diamondbacks ML +105, 10% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher…

    • 4/29/26 Recap

      Lowkey wish that this was later and not during testing. 6/6 is such a good day. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/13Sportsbook favorites won: 5/13Picks won: 6/6Net Units: +6.43uROI: 107.17% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 19/36Sportsbook favorites won: 18/36Picks won: 12/16Net Units: +9.57uROI: 59.81%

    • 4/29/26 Baseball Picks

      Third Day of Testing Period My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Chicago White Sox ML +110, 7.5% Toronto Blue Jays ML -130, 10% Chicago Cubs ML -110, 20% Colorado Rockies ML +125, 16% Washington Nationals ML +140, 15% Arizona Diamondbacks ML +100, 14% Comparison to…