Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 4/28/26 Recap

      Pretty solid day. Marlins actually clutched up this time. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 9/15Sportsbook favorites won: 11/15Picks won: 5/8Net Units: +2.94uROI: 36.75% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 12/23Sportsbook favorites won: 13/23Picks won: 6/10Net Units: +3.14uROI: 31.40%

    • 4/28/26 Baseball Picks

      Second Day of Testing Period My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Tampa Bay Rays ML +110, 7.5% Baltimore Orioles ML -135, 16% Colorado Rockies ML +165, 13.5% San Francisco Giants ML +125, 16% Toronto Blue Jays ML -115, 6% Washington Nationals ML +155, 7% Chicago…

    • 4/27/26 Recap

      Marlins choked, which kinda sucks, but still have a positive day. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 3/8Sportsbook favorites won: 2/8Picks won: 1/2Net Units: +0.20uROI: 10% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 3/8Sportsbook favorites won: 2/8Picks won: 1/2Net Units: +0.20uROI: 10%

    • 4/27/26 Baseball Picks

      First Day of Testing Period My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Minnesota Twins ML +120, 8% Miami Marlins ML +230, 6% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Tampa…

    • Bayesball Season Is Back!

      I’ll begin with some testing for a couple of weeks before starting to bet with the model again. I think the testing will start around 4/27.

    • 11/1/25 Recap

      Unfortunately, the Dodgers won the World Series. My model was surprisingly solid for the postseason, though I did miss a few of the earlier matches. Although it was a low sample size, hopefully this means my model is effective for the postseason as well. Anyways, baseball season is over, so see y’all next year. Today’s…

    • 11/1/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy No picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 44.62% -0.0406 +120 My…

    • 10/31/25 Recap

      Dodgers probably end up winning the World Series again. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/1Sportsbook favorites won: 1/1Picks won: 0/1Net Units: -1.00uROI: -100.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 23/35Sportsbook favorites won: 21/35Picks won: 14/25Net Units: +4.48uROI: 17.92%

    • 10/31/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Toronto Blue Jays ML +120, 5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays…

    • 10/29/25 Recap

      Jays are back to home to hopefully close it out Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 0/1Sportsbook favorites won: 0/1Picks won: 1/1Net Units: +1.70uROI: 170.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 22/34Sportsbook favorites won: 20/34Picks won: 14/24Net Units: +5.48uROI: 22.83%