Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 10/29/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Toronto Blue Jays ML +175, 10% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Dodgers Toronto Blue Jays…

    • 10/28/25 Recap

      Hope Jays can continue to win. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/1Sportsbook favorites won: 0/1Picks won: 1/1Net Units: +1.65uROI: 165.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 22/33Sportsbook favorites won: 20/33Picks won: 13/23Net Units: +3.78uROI: 16.43%

    • 10/28/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Toronto Blue Jays ML +165, 17.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Dodgers Toronto Blue Jays…

    • 10/27/25 Recap

      Wow, what a game. Worth giving up my sleep. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/1Sportsbook favorites won: 1/1Picks won: 0/1Net Units: -1.00uROI: -100.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 21/32Sportsbook favorites won: 20/32Picks won: 12/22Net Units: +2.13uROI: 9.68%

    • 10/27/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Toronto Blue Jays ML +170, 5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Dodgers Toronto Blue Jays…

    • 10/25/25 Recap

      Unfortunate home loss for the Jays. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/1Sportsbook favorites won: 1/1Picks won: 0/1Net Units: -1.00uROI: -100.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 20/31Sportsbook favorites won: 19/31Picks won: 12/21Net Units: +3.13uROI: 14.90%

    • 10/25/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Toronto Blue Jays ML +120, 5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays…

    • 10/24/25 Recap

      Very big Blue Jays win. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/1Sportsbook favorites won: 0/1Picks won: 1/1Net Units: +1.35uROI: 135.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 19/30Sportsbook favorites won: 18/30Picks won: 12/20Net Units: +4.13uROI: 20.65%

    • 10/24/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Toronto Blue Jays ML +135, 7.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays…

    • 10/18/25 Recap

      Very unfortunate Mariners loss. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 0/1Sportsbook favorites won: 1/1Picks won: 0/1Net Units: -1.00uROI: -100.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 18/29Sportsbook favorites won: 18/29Picks won: 11/19Net Units: +2.78uROI: 14.63%