Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 10/18/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Seattle Mariners ML +105, 2.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Seattle Mariners 50.11% 0.0272 +105…

    • 10/17/25 Recap

      Mariners go to a game 7. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 0/1Sportsbook favorites won: 1/1Picks won: 0/1Net Units: -1.00uROI: -100.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 18/28Sportsbook favorites won: 17/28Picks won: 11/18Net Units: +3.78uROI: 21.00%

    • 10/17/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Seattle Mariners ML +100, 2.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Seattle Mariners 51.01% 0.0201 +100…

    • 10/16/25 Recap

      And Dodgers get the sweep. My model had Jays, but I wanted Mariners, so I’m glad my model missed that. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/2Sportsbook favorites won: 1/2Picks won: 0/0Net Units: +0.00uROI: 0.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 18/27Sportsbook favorites won: 16/27Picks won: 11/17Net Units: +4.78uROI: 28.12%

    • 10/16/25 Recap

      Mariners might be a little screwed. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/2Sportsbook favorites won: 1/2Picks won: 0/1Net Units: -1.00uROI: -100.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 18/27Sportsbook favorites won: 16/27Picks won: 11/18Net Units: +3.78uROI: 21.00%

    • 10/17/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy None Today Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Toronto Blue Jays 52.03% -0.0479 -120 Milwaukee Brewers…

    • 10/15/25 Recap

      Well, Mariners did not end up sweeping. Blue Jays laid belt to ass. My model had that though. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/1Sportsbook favorites won: 0/1Picks won: 1/1Net Units: +1.00uROI: 100.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 17/25Sportsbook favorites won: 15/25Picks won: 11/17Net Units: +4.78uROI: 28.12%

    • 10/15/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Toronto Blue Jays ML +100, 15% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Toronto Blue Jays 65.01%…

    • 10/14/25 Recap

      I think both Dodgers and Mariners might end up sweeping. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/1Sportsbook favorites won: 1/1Picks won: 1/1Net Units: +0.83uROI: 83.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 16/24Sportsbook favorites won: 15/24Picks won: 10/16Net Units: +3.78uROI: 23.63%

    • 10/14/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Los Angeles Dodgers ML -120, 2.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers Los Angeles Dodgers 57.60%…