Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 10/13/25 Recap

      My model’s been really good after that set of wild card matches. Maybe it’s luck though. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 2/2Sportsbook favorites won: 1/2Picks won: 1/1Net Units: +1.15uROI: 115.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 15/23Sportsbook favorites won: 14/23Picks won: 9/15Net Units: +2.95uROI: 19.67%

    • 10/13/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Seattle Mariners ML +115, 7.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Seattle Mariners 54.69% 0.1759 +115…

    • 10/12/25 Recap

      Seems like the models been good in these past few games. Although, I did miss a few days. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/1Sportsbook favorites won: 0/1Picks won: 1/1Net Units: +1.40uROI: 140.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 13/21Sportsbook favorites won: 13/21Picks won: 8/14Net Units: 1.80uROI: 12.86%

    • 10/12/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Seattle Mariners ML +140, 10% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Seattle Mariners 52.29% 0.2549 +140…

    • 10/10/25 Recap

      Another slight up day for the model. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/1Sportsbook favorites won: 0/1Picks won: 1/1Net Units: +1.10uROI: 110.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 12/20Sportsbook favorites won: 13/20Picks won: 7/13Net Units: 0.40uROI: 3.07%

    • 10/10/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Seattle Mariners ML +110, 5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 52.58% 0.1042 +110 My…

    • 10/9/25 Recap

      Another slight up day for the model. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/2Sportsbook favorites won: 1/2Picks won: 1/2Net Units: +0.05uROI: 2.50% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 11/19Sportsbook favorites won: 13/19Picks won: 6/12Net Units: -0.70uROI: -5.83%

    • 10/9/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Philadelphia Phillies ML +115, 5% Chicago Cubs ML +105, 7.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies…

    • 10/7/25 Recap

      Another slight up day for the model. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 2/2Sportsbook favorites won: 2/2Picks won: 1/1Net Units: +0.71uROI: 71.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 10/17Sportsbook favorites won: 12/17Picks won: 5/10Net Units: -0.75uROI: -7.50%

    • 10/7/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Seattle Mariners ML -140 Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers Seattle Mariners 61.25% 0.0457 -140 Toronto Blue…