Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 10/6/25 Recap

      Model doing quite a bit better now. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 2/2Sportsbook favorites won: 2/2Picks won: 1/1Net Units: +0.74uROI: 74.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15Picks won: 4/9Net Units: -1.46uROI: -16.22%

    • 10/6/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Los Angeles Dodgers ML -135, 5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Los Angeles Dodgers 60.23%…

    • 10/5/25 Recap

      I still think my model might not properly generalize, but that’s the first up day. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/2Sportsbook favorites won: 0/2Picks won: 1/1Net Units: +1.10uROI: 110% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 6/13Sportsbook favorites won: 8/13Picks won: 3/8Net Units: -2.20uROI: -27.50%

    • 10/5/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Seattle Mariners ML +110, 5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 42.04%…

    • 10/2/25 Recap

      Numbers aside, intuitively, it would make sense that my model wouldn’t work as well for post-season since starting pitcher is valued a lot more in the post-season than in the regular season. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/3Sportsbook favorites won: 2/3Picks won: 1/2Net Units: -0.13uROI: -6.50% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 5/11Sportsbook favorites won: 8/11Picks…

    • 10/2/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Chicago Cubs ML -115, 7.5% Boston Red Sox ML +140, 7.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians…

    • 10/1/25 Recap

      Yea the model isn’t looking good for the post-season tbh. Hopefully just getting unlucky right now; it’d be good if the model generalized to post season. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 3/4Sportsbook favorites won: 3/4Picks won: 0/2Net Units: -2uROI: -100.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 4/8Sportsbook favorites won: 6/8Picks won: 1/5Net Units: -3.17uROI: -63.40%

    • 10/1/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Chicago Cubs ML -110, 7.5% Cincinnati Reds ML +225, 10% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Cleveland…

    • 9/30/25 Recap

      Not the best day for the model or picks. I honestly doubt that the model trained off of the regular season games will properly generalize for the post-season games, but we’ll see. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/4Sportsbook favorites won: 3/4Picks won: 1/3Net Units: -1.17uROI: -39.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 1/4Sportsbook favorites won: 3/4Picks…

    • 9/30/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Cleveland Guardians ML +140, 7.5% Chicago Cubs ML -120, 5% Cincinnati Reds ML +180, 12.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Detroit…