Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

Recent posts

    Category: Uncategorized

    • Post-Season Plans

      I may post picks for the matches in the post-season. I will also be considering futures. As of currently, my top 3 to win the world series according to my model are the Dodgers, Cubs, and Mariners.

    • 9/28/25 Recap

      Horrible day today to end the regular season. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/15Sportsbook favorites won: 11/15Picks won: 1/5Net Units: -2.90uROI: -58.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 48/90Sportsbook favorites won: 50/90Picks won: 15/34Net Units: -0.21uROI: -0.62%

    • 9/28/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Baltimore Orioles ML +165, 17.5% Tampa Bay Rays ML +160, 10% Miami Marlins ML +110, 5% Cincinnati Reds ML +110, 5% Pittsburgh Pirates ML +160, 15% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s…

    • 9/27/25 Recap

      Another down day sadly. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 9/15Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15Picks won: 3/7Net Units: -0.84uROI: -12.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 41/75Sportsbook favorites won: 39/75Picks won: 14/29Net Units: +2.69uROI: 9.28%

    • 9/27/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Baltimore Orioles ML +205, 7.5% Chicago White Sox ML +100. 12.5% Boston Red Sox ML -150, 12.5% Pittsburgh Pirates ML +135, 10% Cincinnati Reds ML +120, 12.5% Houston Astros ML -165, 10% Athletics ML -125, 7.5% Comparison to Sportsbook…

    • 9/26/25 Recap

      Pretty mid day. Really a big blow that the Orioles lost though, given their predicted probability to win. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15Picks won: 2/5Net Units: -0.20uROI: -4.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 32/60Sportsbook favorites won: 30/60Picks won: 11/22Net Units: +3.53uROI: 16.05%

    • 9/26/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Minnesota Twins ML +135, 12.5% Baltimore Orioles ML +130, 22.5% Pittsburgh Pirates ML +135, 10% Cincinnati Reds ML +145, 12.5% Arizona Diamondbacks ML +115, 7.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds…

    • 9/25/25 Recap

      Not a great day today. White Sox almost had it, but they choked twice in this series that led to their loss. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/12Sportsbook favorites won: 8/12Picks won: 1/3Net Units: -1.13uROI: -37.67% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 24/45Sportsbook favorites won: 22/45Picks won: 9/17Net Units: +3.73uROI: 21.94%

    • 9/25/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Chicago White Sox ML +270, 12.5% Boston Red Sox ML +110, 10% Kansas City Royals ML -115, 12.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability…

    • 9/24/25 Recap

      Pretty solid day today. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 9/15Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15Picks won: 3/5Net Units: +1.11uROI: 22.20% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 16/33Sportsbook favorites won: 14/33Picks won: 8/14Net Units: +4.86uROI: 34.71%