Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 9/24/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Washington Nationals ML +160, 15% Cleveland Guardians ML -130, 7.5% Miami Marlins ML +170, 15% Chicago White Sox ML +305, 10% Chicago Cubs ML -135, 12.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s…

    • 9/23/25 Recap

      Really good day. Marlins and Cardinals came clutch. White Sox trolled pretty hard though. Ended up losing the game because of a wild pitch home base steal in the 9th inning. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 5/15Sportsbook favorites won: 4/15Picks won: 4/7Net Units: +3.50uROI: 50.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 7/18Sportsbook favorites won: 6/18Picks won:…

    • 9/23/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Cleveland Guardians ML +135, 10% Pittsburgh Pirates ML +150, 7.5% Miami Marlins ML +185, 10% Chicago White Sox ML +205, 10% Washington Nationals ML +170, 22.5% Chicago Cubs ML -115, 7.5% St. Louis Cardinals ML +180, 7.5% Comparison to…

    • 9/22/25 Recap

      Decent start to the last week of the regular season. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 2/3Sportsbook favorites won: 2/3Picks won: 1/2Net Units: +0.25uROI: 12.50% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 2/3Sportsbook favorites won: 2/3Picks won: 1/2Net Units: +0.25uROI: 12.50%

    • 9/22/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Washington Nationals ML +220, 7.5% St. Louis Cardinals ML +125, 15% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves…

    • 9/21/25 Recap

      Good day today for my picks but not really great for the model overall. Coming up on the last week of the regular season sadly. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 5/15Sportsbook favorites won: 6/15Picks won: 3/6Net Units: +1.12uROI: 18.67% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 51/96Sportsbook favorites won: 48/96Picks won: 16/31Net Units: +3.94uROI: 12.71%

    • 9/21/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Baltimore Orioles ML +120, 7.5% Washington Nationals ML +230, 7.5% Toronto Blue Jays ML -115, 7.5% Chicago White Sox ML +160, 12.5% Colorado Rockies ML -105, 15% Boston Red Sox ML -135, 12.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and…

    • 9/20/25 Recap

      Decent day today. Very small gain, but that could have gone a lot worse. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/16Sportsbook favorites won: 6/16Picks won: 2/4Net Units: +0.17uROI: 4.25% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 46/81Sportsbook favorites won: 42/81Picks won: 13/25Net Units: +2.82uROI: 11.28%

    • 9/20/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Miami Marlins ML +130, 7.5% Baltimore Orioles ML +170, 7.5% Chicago White Sox ML +145, 7.5% Arizona Diamondbacks ML -115, 5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher…

    • 9/19/25 Recap

      Solid day today. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/15Sportsbook favorites won: 3/15Picks won: 3/5Net Units: +1.40uROI: 28.20% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 38/65Sportsbook favorites won: 36/65Picks won: 11/21Net Units: +2.65uROI: 12.62%