Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 9/19/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Baltimore Orioles ML +100, 15% Tampa Bay Rays ML +120, 7.5% Chicago White Sox ML +150, 7.5% Cleveland Guardians ML -110, 10% Arizona Diamondbacks ML -120, 10% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your…

    • 9/18/25 Recap

      Decent day today. Padres really let themselves go though. Also, funnily enough, it’s like my fourth day in a row going 2/4 on picks. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/10Sportsbook favorites won: 7/10Picks won: 2/4Net Units: +1.00uROI: 25.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 31/50Sportsbook favorites won: 33/50Picks won: 8/16Net Units: +1.25uROI: 7.81%

    • 9/18/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Cleveland Guardians ML +165, 7.5% San Diego Padres ML +120, 20% Athletics ML +135, 5% Los Angeles Angels ML +165, 5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher…

    • 9/17/25 Recap

      Should’ve been a better day consider my model overall did well. Funnily enough, net units are the same as yesterday. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 10/15Sportsbook favorites won: 11/15Picks won: 2/4Net Units: +0.40uROI: 10.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 24/40Sportsbook favorites won: 26/40Picks won: 6/12Net Units: +0.25uROI: 2.08%

    • 9/17/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Pittsburgh Pirates ML +140, 10% Washington Nationals ML +135, 22.5% Cleveland Guardians ML +130, 10% Tampa Bay Rays ML +115, 5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher…

    • 9/16/25 Recap

      Pretty mid day today. Rockies almost came back at the end, which I wanted so bad. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 9/16Sportsbook favorites won: 8/16Picks won: 2/4Net Units: +0.40uROI: 10.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 14/25Sportsbook favorites won: 15/25Picks won: 4/8Net Units: -0.15uROI: -1.88%

    • 9/16/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Cleveland Guardians ML +130, 10% Boston Red Sox ML -170, 10% Houston Astros ML +110, 12.5% Colorado Rockies ML +130, 5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher…

    • 9/15/25 Recap

      Slightly bad day today. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 5/9Sportsbook favorites won: 7/9Picks won: 2/4Net Units: -0.55uROI: -13.75% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 5/9Sportsbook favorites won: 7/9Picks won: 2/4Net Units: -0.55uROI: -13.75%

    • 9/15/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Pittsburgh Pirates ML +105, 10% Washington Nationals ML +140, 12.5% Houston Astros ML -135, 7.5% Arizona Diamondbacks ML -140, 15% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV…

    • 9/14/25 Recap

      Solid day to end the horrible week. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 11/15Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15Picks won: 4/7Net Units: +0.98uROI: 14.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 51/80Sportsbook favorites won: 56/65Picks won: 17/40Net Units: -5.29uROI: -13.23%