Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 9/14/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Pittsburgh Pirates ML -110, 7.5% Kansas City Royals ML +140, 20% Chicago White Sox ML +140, 12.5% Arizona Diamondbacks ML +105, 15% Athletics ML -110, 10% Colorado Rockies ML +275, 5% Boston Red Sox ML -160, 10% Comparison to…

    • 9/13/25 Recap

      Once again, another day with very high confidence picks that fell flat. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 10/15Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15Picks won: 4/9Net Units: -0.68uROI: -7.56% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 40/65Sportsbook favorites won: 47/65Picks won: 13/33Net Units: -6.27uROI: -19.00%

    • 9/13/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Tampa Bay Rays ML +100, 7.5% Washington Nationals ML -110, 22.5% Texas Rangers ML +135, 7.5% Detroit Tigers ML -130, 15% Kansas City Royals ML +125, 22.5% Arizona Diamondbacks ML +120, 7.5% Houston Astros ML -130, 15% St. Louis…

    • 9/12/25 Recap

      My losing streak continues. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 6/15Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15Picks won: 2/5Net Units: -1.32uROI: -26.40% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 30/65Sportsbook favorites won: 37/65Picks won: 9/24Net Units: -5.59uROI: -23.29%

    • 9/12/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Kansas City Royals ML +115, 15% Texas Rangers ML -110, 5% Chicago White Sox ML +145, 10% Houston Astros ML +100, 20% St. Louis Cardinals ML +165, 7.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds.…

    • 9/11/25 Recap

      Yet another bad day. Mets completely choked. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 5/9Sportsbook favorites won: 8/9Picks won: 0/2Net Units: -2.00uROI: -100.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 24/50Sportsbook favorites won: 29/50Picks won: 7/19Net Units: -4.27uROI: -22.47%

    • 9/11/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Pittsburgh Pirates ML +100, 7.5% New York Mets ML +110, 10% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Predicted Winner Probability EV Odds Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles Pittsburgh…

    • 9/10/25 Recap

      It feels like every time I get a good day, I immediately get a horrible one that resets everything. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 4/15Sportsbook favorites won: 5/15Picks won: 1/5Net Units: -2.80uROI: -56.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 19/41Sportsbook favorites won: 21/41Picks won: 7/17Net Units: -2.27uROI: -13.35%

    • 9/10/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Cleveland Guardians ML -110, 15% Washington Nationals ML +125, 5% New York Mets ML +145, 7.5% Cincinnati Reds ML +130, 5% St. Louis Cardinals ML +185, 7.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your…

    • 9/9/25 Recap

      Really solid day today. Makes up for yesterday’s fiasco. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 10/15Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15Picks won: 4/5Net Units: +3.28uROI: 65.60% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 15/26Sportsbook favorites won: 16/26Picks won: 6/12Net Units: +0.53uROI: 4.42%