Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

Recent posts

    Category: Uncategorized

    • 9/9/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Washington Nationals ML +105, 10% Detroit Tigers ML +130, 17.5% Chicago Cubs ML -115, 15% Milwaukee Brewers ML -105, 10% Los Angeles Angels ML +105, 10% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s…

    • 9/8/25 Recap

      Horrible day today. Insanely unlucky given that so many of my picks were decently high percentage. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 5/11Sportsbook favorites won: 6/11Picks won: 2/7Net Units: -2.75uROI: -39.29% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 5/11Sportsbook favorites won: 6/11Picks won: 2/7Net Units: -2.75uROI: -39.29%

    • 9/8/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Kansas City Royals ML -105, 15% Washington Nationals ML +110, 22.5% New York Mets ML -125, 15% Chicago Cubs ML -140, 12.5% Minnesota Twins ML +110, 10% Arizona Diamondbacks ML +150, 15% Athletics ML +150, 20% Comparison to Sportsbook…

    • 9/7/25 Recap

      Model went crazy today. Amazing day today, and an excellent end to the week. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 11/15Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15Picks won: 5/6Net Units: +5.45uROI: 90.83% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 50/93Sportsbook favorites won: 42/93Picks won: 19/31Net Units: +12.22uROI: 39.42%

    • 9/7/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Seattle Mariners ML +100, 12.5% Cleveland Guardians ML +125, 5% Pittsburgh Pirates ML +130, 15% Chicago White Sox ML +155, 10% Washington Nationals ML +165, 15% Los Angeles Angels ML +100, 7.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds…

    • 9/6/25 Recap

      Solid day today. Honestly didn’t expect Nationals to win, but somehow, they pulled it off. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 6/15Picks won: 2/4Net Units: +1.30uROI: 32.50% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 39/78Sportsbook favorites won: 35/78Picks won: 14/25Net Units: +6.77uROI: 27.08%

    • 9/6/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Washington Nationals ML +220, 5% Chicago White Sox ML +240, 10% New York Mets ML -130, 10% Seattle Mariners ML +110, 20% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup…

    • 9/5/25 Recap

      Pretty bad day today. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 5/15Sportsbook favorites won: 6/15Picks won: 1/4Net Units: -1.45uROI: -36.25% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 31/63Sportsbook favorites won: 29/63Picks won: 12/21Net Units: +5.47uROI: 26.05%

    • 9/5/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Chicago White Sox ML +155, 7.5% Pittsburgh Pirates ML +120, 7.5% Miami Marlins ML +200, 10% Los Angeles Angels ML -150, 10% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup…

    • 9/4/25 Recap

      Decent day today. Went pretty much how I thought it would tbh. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 3/6Sportsbook favorites won: 3/6Picks won: 1/2Net Units: +0.20uROI: 10.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 26/48Sportsbook favorites won: 23/48Picks won: 11/17Net Units: +6.92uROI: 40.71%