My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Washington Nationals ML +105, 10%
- Detroit Tigers ML +130, 17.5%
- Chicago Cubs ML -115, 15%
- Milwaukee Brewers ML -105, 10%
- Los Angeles Angels ML +105, 10%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles | Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.08% | 0.0329 | -110 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians | Kansas City Royals | 57.40% | 0.1193 | -105 |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals | 59.88% | 0.2276 | +105 |
| New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | 45.53% | -0.0210 | +115 |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | Detroit Tigers | 62.85% | 0.4455 | +130 |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 66.29% | 0.1071 | -150 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves | Chicago Cubs | 69.01% | 0.2905 | -115 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 48.10% | 0.0341 | +115 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas Rangers | Milwaukee Brewers | 60.21% | 0.1741 | -105 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 58.37% | 0.1966 | +105 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres | Cincinnati Reds | 45.00% | 0.1474 | +155 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Seattle Mariners | St. Louis Cardinals | 42.32% | 0.1426 | +170 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | Arizona Diamondbacks | 50.00% | 0.0900 | +120 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Athletics | Athletics | 53.93% | 0.0301 | -110 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Colorado Rockies | 30.78% | 0.1080 | +260 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles | Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.08% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians | Kansas City Royals | 57.40% |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals | 59.88% |
| New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 54.47% |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | Detroit Tigers | 62.85% |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 66.29% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves | Chicago Cubs | 69.01% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox | Tampa Bay Rays | 51.90% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas Rangers | Milwaukee Brewers | 60.21% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 58.37% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 55.00% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 57.68% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 50.00% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Athletics | Athletics | 53.93% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 69.22% |
Bayesball Picks 
Leave a comment