Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 9/4/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Chicago White Sox ML +125, 10% Houston Astros ML +120, 7.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers…

    • 9/3/25 Recap

      Really good day today. Astros and White Sox clutched, though the Astros clutch was in part due to umpire shenanigans. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/15Sportsbook favorites won: 5/15Picks won: 3/4Net Units: +2.95uROI: 73.75% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 23/42Sportsbook favorites won: 20/42Picks won: 10/15Net Units: +6.72uROI: 44.80%

    • 9/3/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Pittsburgh Pirates ML +150, 10% Chicago White Sox ML +140, 15% Athletics ML -105, 12.5% Houston Astros ML +105, 17.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV…

    • 9/2/25 Recap

      Solid day today. Making small steps to cover last Friday’s burn. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 9/14Sportsbook favorites won: 8/14Picks won: 3/5Net Units: +0.90uROI: 18.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 16/27Sportsbook favorites won: 15/27Picks won: 7/11Net Units: +3.77uROI: 34.27%

    • 9/2/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy New York Mets ML -130, 10% Chicago White Sox ML +120, 10% Athletics ML -120, 10% Houston Astros ML +105, 5% Arizona Diamondbacks ML -115, 5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s…

    • 9/1/25 Recap

      Pretty solid day to start the week and the month. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/13Sportsbook favorites won: 7/13Picks won: 4/6Net Units: +2.87uROI: 47.83% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 7/13Sportsbook favorites won: 7/13Picks won: 4/6Net Units: +2.87uROI: 47.83%

    • 9/1/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Cleveland Guardians ML +130, 10% Chicago White Sox ML +155, 10% Athletics ML +120, 20% Chicago Cubs ML -130, 7.5% Colorado Rockies ML +130, 7.5% Baltimore Orioles ML +135, 7.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are…

    • 8/31/25 Recap

      Another bad day to bring this week down to a horrible week. Particularly got screwed on Friday though. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15Picks won: 1/4Net Units: -1.35uROI: -33.75% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 50/96Sportsbook favorites won: 53/96Picks won: 15/39Net Units: -4.25uROI: -10.90%

    • 8/31/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy San Diego Padres ML +110, 15% Chicago White Sox ML +165, 12.5% Baltimore Orioles ML +110, 15% Philadelphia Phillies ML -155, 12.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup…

    • 8/30/25 Recap

      Alright day today. A lot more in line with the smaller more consistent gains my model previously had. Yesterday still stings. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 6/15Sportsbook favorites won: 7//15Picks won: 2/4Net Units: 0.30uROI: 7.50% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 42/81Sportsbook favorites won: 45/81Picks won: 14/35Net Units: -2.90uROI: -8.29%